With shaky offense, Tigers will be challenged to finish .500
Alright, good start. A straight-forward theme.
A not-so-giddy thought for Tigers fans four days before spring training convenes has to do with the romancing of outfielder Johnny Damon.
What's troublesome for the Tigers is this: Even if they sign Damon, who would at least bring manager Jim Leyland a reliable leadoff bat, the Tigers will be lucky to finish .500 in 2010.
At no point does Lynn provide any statistical evidence as to why he came to this deduction. Just a bunch of guess as to what the players will do. Now I'm not saying he's wrong, just that I have no solid basis for his conclusion.
A reasonable view today, based on the way the current roster shakes out, is they might win 80 games, with 75 being more realistic.
Offense stands to be a king-size problem for the Tigers in 2010 and Damon will only make a potentially bad situation one important batter better.
Is there any reason the offense is a king-size problem? And I've already covered this before, but Damon is past his prime, an solid offensive player, but not someone that should take time away from a good prospect.
Damon, however, would be a big lift, all because he has dependable on-base percentage (.365 in 2009, .355 career), which is a vital number for a team so seemingly runs-challenged.
Why are they run-challenged?!?! I'll make the case for Lynn. Last year they averaged 4.6 r/g. That was good for 11th out of 14 teams. Team OPS+ of 93. It was that easy. I found it here.
That he has been shopped heavily by his agent, Scott Boras, is irrelevant.
Then why write it? Also, a terribly constructed sentence. "Scott Boras has shopped Damon around, but that is irrelevant." Better. Still shouldn't be in the article.
A sinking off-season market sodden with cash-strapped teams has at least created for the Tigers an opportunity.
Again Lynn, poor sentence construction. No commas? That's the fault of you and your editor. Let's see what we can do with this one. "A sinking off-season market sodden with cash-strapped teams has created an opportunity for the Tigers." There we go.
Mike Ilitch, the Tigers owner who wanted payrolls pared back, has clearly gotten nervous about his club's capabilities. Ilitch and the Tigers' front office are now considering hooking up with Damon and Boras...
I'm so tired of today's hook up culture. Owners and GM's just jumping in the sack with any agent that buys them an appletini at Spy Bar.
The shame of this somewhat revised thinking is that it prevented the Tigers from offering Placido Polanco arbitration in December. The payroll was then being pruned with such discipline that the Tigers couldn't afford being stuck with Polanco at $8 million or $9 million, even if they could have traded him by picking up a few million of his salary.
Polanco projects at a 3.3 WAR to Damon's 3.2. But the number's I've heard thrown around for Damon are in the $5 million range so maybe it was not a bad move. Like Lynn said earlier, the market is terrible this year for free agents.
Damon, Boras and the Tigers should still hook up.
I hope they use protection at least. Call back!
The Tigers can't assume that rookie Austin Jackson will be ready to play a full season in center or as their leadoff batter.
Again, I already covered this, but Damon is not a centerfielder anymore. Zero games as a centerfielder last year and terrible numbers in 2008.
The Tigers need Damon at the top spot. And then they must pray for surprises, all of them pleasant.
Why would they pray for unpleasant surprises?
Scott Sizemore must hit as Polanco's replacement at second base. He has the skills to hit for a nice average with some extra-base crunch.
OK, I just looked up his stats in Baseball Prospectus 2010 and they have the wrong player stats listed. Page 194 if you have one. Here are the real ones. Honestly, this is the first player I've looked up and his stats are wrong. I'm very disappointed Prospectus.
Seriously, Carlos Guillen must hit, and so must Magglio Ordonez.
Lynn is being totally serial. (South Park tag!) This sentence just doesn't say anything. You can make that statement for any team. For the Cubs to win Lee MUST HIT. For the Lakers to win Kobe MUST SCORE. (Third example should be a joke, cause that's the rules of comedic rhythm, but I got nothing.)
Brandon Inge must have a full season of offense on the scale of his 2009 first half. Gerald Laird needs to be the batter he often was before arriving in Detroit.
Yeah Lynn, we get it. It would help if the players played well. Great observation.
The biggest breakthrough must occur in center field, Curtis Granderson's old position. That's why Casper Wells remains perhaps the most pivotal player who arrives at Lakeland, Fla., this week. He could provide the punch necessary to minimize Granderson's departure for New York, at least until Jackson shows he belongs in the big leagues. Or, until Clete Thomas or Ryan Raburn can prove they're the answer.
If those are your choices for center I'd sign Damon right now. All of them project at a WARP under 1.4. Wells and Thomas are under .5. Again, Damon projects at a 3.2, for the sake of comparison. Though he is NOT a centerfielder.
That's an awful lot of issues in need of going the Tigers' way during the next six weeks. Otherwise, the Tigers must hope they have a surplus of pitching at the end of spring camp.
"Otherwise" is not the word you wanted there Lynn. I mean really they should hope for to have great pitching either way.
A pitching glut would allow for a trade, which could perk up an offense that right now is no match for the Minnesota Twins, who, incidentally, have quietly hit $100 million in payroll.
Holy crap is that true? Wow. Nice stat. I've confirmed it here.
But the above scenarios are also why you allow spring training to play out. Surprises emerge, some of them on the plus side. And the Tigers, these days, are really keen on pluses.
First of all, you can't stop spring training from playing out. Secondly, I'm going to rewrite that last sentence a few times with one change each time to prove a point:
And the Rockies, these days, are really keen on pluses.
And the Red Sox, these days, are really keen on pluses.
And Pauly Shore, these days, is really keen on pluses. (Third one!! I did it!!!)
Case Closed!