Thursday, January 14, 2010
Too many coaching articles...
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Best Column Title Ever...
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Blog hinges on Jeff Saunders
Jeff Francis, version 2007, vs. Jason Marquis, version 2009. Whom would you choose?
Well looking at WPA (win probability added) they're roughly the same for those two years: Marquis = 2.24 Francis = 2.48 Their FIP (fielding independent pitching): Marquis = 4.10 Francis 4.19. So their roughly the same quality of pitcher. I would argue it's pretty much a toss up, though Francis' last good year was over 2 years ago and he missed all of last year with an arm injury. So I would probably pick the pitcher who was healthy last. How about you Jeff?
For my money, a vintage Francis is the easy pick over Marquis.
Well it is your money, but I mean 2007 Francis won't be playing, 2010 post-surgery Francis will. But I guess if we ignore reality, then sure Francis was slightly better, maybe, depending on what stat you go by...
Francis has proved he can be a big-moment pitcher. Marquis never has.
Eh, I'm not getting baited on this one, but to be honest I don't care about the "big-moment" pitcher stuff. Anything else?
But in order for the Rockies to win the National League West for the first time in franchise history, Francis' tender left shoulder must be completely healed.
I guess not. So Jeff's only reason for picking Francis is that he got hot at the end of 2007. Well that one way to make a choice.
He must regain his delivery and his edge during spring training. During the course of the season, his shoulder must be able to bear the weight of at least 180 innings. The affable lefty must be a reasonable facsimile of the pitcher who graced the cover of Sports Illustrated during the magic of Rocktober.
Wow. So there are many caveats to picking Francis. So many you might say one would instead pick Marquis. No time for that though, lets take a trip down memory lane with our host Jeff Saunders:
That pitcher went 17-9 with a 4.22 ERA in the regular season. That pitcher went into Philadelphia in the NL division series and stymied the potent Phillies. That pitcher went into Arizona in the NLCS and dominated the Diamondbacks.
It's been downhill from there. The Red Sox blew Francis off the mound in Game 1 of the 2007 World Series at Fenway Park.
Wow. That does not sound like a "big-game" pitcher to me. I mean the division series and NLCS were great, but to blow the World Series, the biggest series of the baseball year, that kinda makes it look like you are not a "big-game" pitcher.
Francis' woes were the main reason the Rockies traded for Marquis last winter. In his short stint in purple pinstripes, the right-hander proved to be a half-season wonder. He won 11 games in the first half and made the all-star team. He was a consistent, tough, pit bull of a pitcher.
But in the second half, he was inconsistent and ineffective. If his sinker wasn't working, he struggled. He was 1-3 with a 5.71 ERA in September. Although he pitched a career-high 216 innings, he was a bystander during Colorado's NLDS loss to the Phillies.
You see that? When you win 11 games you're a "consistent" pitcher, and when you have a 5.71 ERA you are an "inconsistent" pitcher. I wonder what he would have been if he had mixed those 11 wins in throughout the year? And he did not even get a chance to pitch in the postseason last year. Jeff ignores his stints with other teams where he pitched in the postseason. If you're wondering he's pretty much the same exact pitcher as he is in the regular season. Shocking.
So in 2010, the Rockies will lean on the consistent professionalism of Aaron Cook.
I hope he's bringing more than that to the table. I mean my Uncle Rich is professional too, but he SHOULD NOT be pitching opening day in Coors Field.
They're counting on Ubaldo Jimenez to unleash his enormous potential and finally pitch like an ace. They're crossing their fingers that mercurial Jorge De La Rosa can be counted on.
Most of all, they are betting that Francis' best will be better than what they got from Marquis last season. If that happens, the rest of the NL West just might be looking up at the Rockies.
That seems like a poor bet since even in his best season Francis was about as good as Marquis was last year. And I mean, he's coming off major surgery and a missed year.
Well, as the kids say:
Case Closed!