Wednesday, July 7, 2010

A deviation...

We'll call this a flashback post since the column is from April 5th. Now, I never pick on random blogs because it's not their job to write sports articles, they just do it for the love. But sometimes, love can go too far and blind a man as is the case here:

This years Cubs team is not terribly promising to be world beaters.

Keep that in mind.

Their sluggers are old,

Most are 30 or older so good point.

their pitching erratic, and their bullpen is making me yearn for the days of Felix Heredia.

I'm not saying he's good, but as an interesting side note Felix had a 15-6 record in 4 years with the Cubs. If you look at any other stat he isn't quite up to snuff, but that W-L record is impressive.

Diamond Derreck (sic) Lee is the Captain and star of the squad, but he's 35 and may be entering a decline.

He's still 34 at the all-star break. Also, last year was one of his best years ever so this guy obviously saw something we didn't when it comes to Lee's decline since this is currently his WORST year ever.

Old Man Aramis Ramirez is hoping for bounce back year after an injury plagued one in '09,

Well...maybe next year...

and Alphonso Soriano is contractually obligated to play.

Ha!

The pitching has some talent, mostly erratic.

Ugh, that's such a generic comment. You can go through every team and find good and bad and mediocre pitchers. EVERY TEAM has 'erratic' pitching.

Big Carlos Zambrano will likely pitch brilliantly,

-I look away and cough-

and consistently hit opposing batters in the back when they anger him,

Or his own players, either way.

Ted Lilly should be injured for half the year, and I believe Mark Prior has been put back onto the DL.

Mark Prior? He hasn't pitched for the Cubs since 2006! Is he trying to call Ted Lilly 'Mark Prior'? Maybe, but I see no real evidence of that.

All in all, it should be a fun year,

Neato, The Beav. And you can get into the games by collecting 20 glass Coke bottles you find on the streets which equal the 20 cents a ticket costs back in 1910 where you apparently live. BTW, I have some bad news if you're planning on seeing the Cubs win the World Series Beav...

although I'm going to miss Milton Bradley.

You're the only one.

My prediction- Cubs go 94-68, and win the World Series.

What was that first line again? Oh Yeah:
This years Cubs team is not terribly promising to be world beaters.

Case Closed!

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Correlation

Sometimes you can draw parallel lines between two separate entities and gauge where one will end up. TNA and WCW for example. But you have to be careful, as they say correlation is not causation. That's a lesson that Thomas Boswell forget when he wrote this column:

History reminds us Stephen Strasburg is better off not being an all-star yet

Wow, that is a heck of a premise. Strasburg is better off not being showcased in the biggest game of the regular season (ratings wise). This is going to be a tough thesis to prove, I can tell that already.

Each baseball era thinks it is unique.

I've never heard a baseball era call itself unique. And really, the more I re-read this line, the less it makes sense to me.

More often, it duplicates past plots precisely.

Yeah like the one where Jeter lost his wedding ring. So him and his buddy Rivera had to cover it up while searching for a ring that looked just like it. And then it turned out his wife had just taken it in to be resized. Same plot as an episode of 'I Love Mantle' 40 years earlier. There is no originality in sports anymore.

Stephen Strasburg might have been this decade's version of Mark Fidrych, Fernando Valenzuela or Hideo Nomo, rookie pitchers who started All-Star Games in '76, '81 and '95, respectively. But Strasburg, 21, didn't even make the all-star team because the Washington Nationals didn't call him up to the big leagues until June. That's good luck for Strasburg. He probably caught a break.
Strasburg can take a few days off...

Stop there and we're good. He's a rookie who the Nationals are taking their time with, and it's good for him to just have the days off rather than fly out of LA and pitch for an inning.

...and be glad he's not being worshipped for two thrilling performances and four promising but flawed ones.

Here are the game logs for Strasburg. He gave up 2,1,1,1,3,2 earned runs in his first 6 starts. The only flaws are ones he doesn't have control over. Strasburg is kept on a short leash as far as his pitches thrown go. Also the Nats offense can't score, which is not his fault.

And he can skip a week-long debate about whether he deserves to be an all-star after six starts and two career wins.

Looks like you're continuing it here. I'm pretty sure the debate is going to rage on anyway, at least until the break is over.

"We were okay with either outcome. On balance, it's probably better this way," said Nats President Stan Kasten after Strasburg made
neither the 33-man NL roster nor the five-player Final Vote for fan balloting. "Stephen was embarrassed by it."
Embarrassed may not be a strong enough word. To one National, Strasburg said, "They don't respect the game."


I don't know where this info actually came from. Maybe Boswell overheard it when he was in the locker room, or he heard it through the reporter grapevine. I cannot tell who "They" is supposed to be.


When it comes to Major League Baseball, "they" usually don't respect it.

What makes him think Major League Baseball is "they"? I'm assuming we're talking about the league offices. I don't see any evidence that they don't respect the game they make million of dollars off. Why did he say this? That quote could be about the steroid policy, or cutting off drinking after the 7th inning. Whom was it said about? The league offices? Reporters? Fans? The crew from Major League? Cause if it was the crew from Major League, I vehemently disagree. You're the reporter Boswell, shouldn't you find some of this stuff out?

So, if enough National League pitchers get hurt, or Strasburg strikes out enough Giants on Friday, he might still be Anaheim-bound.

NO NO NO NO NO NO!!!!! He's not on the voting and he wasn't picked. He could strike out 50 Giants and he still wouldn't get there. He could strike out ACTUAL Giants and he wouldn't get there. Good Ol' Jolly Green has great opposite field power BTW.


Sensible words came from NL Manager Charlie Manuel, who said Strasburg got "quite a bit of consideration but what's he got, like five starts? He's gonna be an all-star for a long time. . . . I felt like, 'Just leave him alone and let him get used to the major league level.' " Will the old Red Devil sing the same tune if his arm gets twisted by Sunday?

Twisted by whom? He already made his roster choices. And I keep hearing the argument that "He's gonna make a lot of all-star teams." Why are all these people so sure he's gonna be an all-star for a long time? People said that about Prior, Van Popple, Zito. You don't (well some people do) vote for Jamie Moyer for the Cy Young because Jimenez will get plenty of them.

The Nats and Strasburg may not realize how fortunate they are.

I see no evidence of that. When he's pitching the Nats sell out, and when he's not, they don't even broadcast the games locally. (May or may not be true)

Periodically, baseball endorses a kind of unholy mid-summer child sacrifice for the sake of marketing.

That is a heck of a reach for that metaphor. If that metaphor could play first base I would sign it on the spot.

With hindsight, many young pitchers were at, or close to their career peaks on the week they dominated all-star celebrations. A self-reinforcing tornado of expectation, anticipation (and money) tempts the sport, and the player's own team, to use up arms and strain psyches as if they were maxing out somebody else's credit card.

Wow. That's some writing there by Boswell. Two metaphors in one poorly constructed sentence. And only one of those metaphors makes any real sense. "A self-reinforcing tornado?" What on Earth does that mean?

Perhaps because the Fidrych sanctification was the first All-Star Game I covered, I came away convinced that it's rarely good for a 21-year-old pitcher to be the baseball world's obsession for a week.

Well then, if you witnessed it happen one time, they obviously it must be true. You're personal observation trumps any common sense.

People start to believe the Superman talk, the "best-ever" mythology and, above all, the delusion that the phenom is so special he's indestructible.
On two days rest after his all-star start, Fidrych pitched his third 11-inning complete game of the year. He won, 1-0. But a pattern was set. No, don't take the Bird out of the game. He can do it. So, he pitched complete games in 31 of his first 37 starts. By the '77 All-Star Game he was disabled and won only four more games the rest of his career.


That's why the Nationals have not let Strasburg throw 100 pitches yet. To avoid that sort of thing. I'm guessing it was throwing all those complete games that ruined Fidrych, not the 2 innings in an all-star game and a lot of attention.

The more amazing the talent, the greater the danger of ruining it by forgetting that the possessor of the gift is just a young man. Baseball sometimes eats its young, especially pitchers, if they make the mistake of being too good too instantaneously.
The attention that the Bird relished and Valenzuela endured were fame-sated experiences that invert any normal life arc. Over the years, other youngsters were only slightly less adored. The impact on their arms or characters was seldom positive whether it was Dwight Gooden at age 19 or Mark Prior at 22. Even Nomo, who was 26 when he made his debut, never duplicated, and seldom approached, the first half of his first season.

Wow. There are so many other reasons for each person's failure than playing in the all-star game. Gooden, lifestyle. Prior, injuries. Nomo, league adjusted to him.

For Strasburg, the aggravations of the next week would've topped any previous hot rookie. His selection would've made perfect modern controversy -- a trivial issue inflated to a lovely fuss. With rosters expanded to 34 players, about four more than needed, we'd have been asked to feel outrage that Strasburg took the place of somebody who would not even have merited consideration in any other year since 1933.

I know I keep asking this but WHAT? What is Tom Boswell talking about? What is he basing the assumption that Strasburg would be met with aggravation during next week's festivities? What aggravation is he referring to? Would Strasburg have to read this article over and over? Why throw in the "four more than needed" line? That's a totally separate issue. Who would have asked us to "feel outrage" about Strasburg? I'm guess the answer has the initials T.B. And I'm pretty sure the last 13 words were written for a different article and just thrown in here by the editor.


The comparison between Strasburg and Valenzuela may be helpful and sobering. Strasburg isn't being wronged, nor fans denied, by waiting to anoint him an all-star. The Nat may become one of the best pitchers of his era. But Valenzuela raised the possibility that he was already the best pitcher who ever lived. There were no clicks or hits to measure in '81, but Fernandomania topped Strasmas for capturing "mind-share."

Eh, that's relatively clever as a play on "win-shares." I don't get the "no clicks or hits to measure" thing. They counted hits. I don't know what click refers to. Radar gun I would suppose and I'm sure they used those back then also.

In Valenzuela's first eight starts (8-0) -- seven complete games, five shutouts -- he had a 0.50 ERA. To add to the silliness, he was batting .360. In time, he came back to earth -- if you consider pitching the Dodgers to a world title as a rookie part of this planet.

Wow, I remember my grandfather mentioning something like that when it came to Valenzuela's initial run. Strasburg can't touch that I suppose.

So far, Strasburg hasn't held a team without a run. In part due to a pitch count, he's left two games in mid-inning and lasted only five innings in another. Twice, he's walked men in bunches. He's been mortal against lefthanded hitters (.702 OPS), especially slap hitters, and has been quite vulnerable with men on base (.319/.803).

That is just the definition of cherry picking stats. He doesn't even give us numbers against so-called "slap hitters." He also fails to give us league averages with any of those stats for comparison. For all I know an .803 OOPS is terrific with MOB.

That March concern that he was too quick from the stretch, a reason for seasoning, may not be fully solved.

I'm gonna rewrite that since it was so poor: The concern in March about his motion still lingers. Scouts (I assume, he never mentions who had this fear) fear Strasburg moves too quickly through the stretch and requires more seasoning.

On the other hand, nobody throws as hard as Strasburg does -- average fastball 97.5 mph, ahead of
Ubaldo Jimenez (96.4) and all-star reliever Neftali Feliz (96.3). Nobody's changeup is as goofy fast (89.8). When it comes to strikeouts-per-nine-innings or percentage-of-swings-and- misses, Strasburg is ahead of any current starter and, at least so far, compares to Randy Johnson in his prime.

Those are great reasons he should be in the all-star game. That was the point of this article right?

In the stat ratios that reveal monster stuff, the only pitchers Strasburg resembles are the top power-pitching closers -- like Jonathan Broxton, Billy Wagner and José Valverde. But those relievers only have to blow up a storm for one inning. Strasburg can keep up the hurricane winds for 95 pitches and presumably 10 to 20 more by '11-'12.

More great reasons for Strasburg to be on the team! What a reasonable and well written column.

The truth is that, compared to the best young rookies of the past, Strasburg isn't quite ready for an All-Star Game. He's still
kicking at the mound in Cleveland, getting caught in a five-run inning in Atlanta and looking vexed at an umpire on Saturday.

I'm not sure where to start with this one. I'm going to just go blanket and say two of those reasons are completely ridiculous. The innings thing is all dumb since Boswell spent the last two paragraphs giving us much better statistical evidence why Strasburg deserves to be there.

He didn't start with complete games and shutouts like Fernando.

Yeah, he's not allowed to complete games so he doesn't ruin his arm.

He hasn't matched Kerry Wood, who at 21 pitched a nine-inning, 20-strikeout, one-hitter...

Wow, one game, sounds like an all-star to me.

and was 8-3 with 149 strikeouts by all-star selection time.

Those are decent reasons, though they are all counting stats.

Yet Wood wasn't on that '98 team.

And his career turned out just the way people pictured thanks to that omission.

Strasburg has perhaps the best all-around stuff in baseball and, often, exceptional command.

Sure would be great if everyone could see him perform on the biggest stage of the summer.

But, just as important for his long-run place in the sport, Strasburg actually seems to respect the game. That, and a healthy (knock on wood) arm, may take care of any all-star debates involving the Nationals right-hander for quite some time.

So here is a list of players that were 21 or younger and made the All-Star team. Some of them worked out and had huge careers. Some didn't. So it looks like there's no real correlation. If you want to argue that Strasburg hasn't pitched in enough games, fine, I agree. But Boswell's whole thing about it'll ruin Strasburg is hogwash and speculation.

Case Closed.

Good Article IX

This funny article comes from Matthew Coller of Chicago Sun-Times. It's a great example of how meaningful rumors reported by 99% of sports journalists really are.

Funny Quote

This is from Ozzie Guillen discussing whether or not Kenny Williams (Sox GM) give Ozzie any input into what players are brought in:

''Kenny should know what we need, what we [don't need],'' Guillen said. ''I'm not the type of manager who gets involved in players, who should be here, who should not. We always talk about this club. We don't have a meeting about anything. Every time me and Kenny have a meeting, it's just because something stupid I did. "