Friday, March 19, 2010

Overrating Mediocre Players

Today I found one of those article where sports writers tell you how some catcher or utility players is underrated. Sometimes, they try to convince you that they're the heart of the team, or that their contributions can't be measured by statistics. Well, Paul Hagen has written one of those columns about the catcher for the Phillies, Carlos Ruiz. What is great about this article is how the Phillies are stacked with names and talent. So writing about their light hitting catcher makes you seem as if you have an insiders edge that the regular guy doesn't:

Ruiz becoming irreplaceable for Phillies

By Paul Hagen Philadelphia Daily News
Daily News Sports Writer

CLEARWATER, Fla. - A couple of weeks into the 1980 season, Angels catcher Brian Downing broke an ankle in a collision at the plate. That seemed to ignite a firecracker string of injuries.
At one point, general manager Buzzie Bavasi and manager Jim Fregosi met to decide which catcher to bring up from the minors. Neither was enthused about the options. Finally, Bavasi made an executive decision.
"We'll bring up [Stan] Cliburn," he concluded. "At least his wife has [large breasts]. You can look at him and I'll look at her."

Someone get Bavasi in contact with Ozzie Guillen right now, they were made for each other. Oops, too late. There's something very old-school baseball about that decision-making process.

Well, that didn't work out so well. A year after making it to the postseason for the first time in franchise history, the Angels finished sixth in a seven-team division.

Some of that was because their offense fell off over two hundred runs from the previous year. The pitching was practically identical. Downing raked in 1979 to the tune of a 149 OPS+ which, for a catcher especially, is an MVP season (he came in 14th). Cliburn, and his eventual replacement Tom Donohue had OPS+'s of 48 and 28!!?!?! respectively. I'm just trying to elaborate on Hagen's point. A really great starting catcher who can rake is important to your offense. That's his point right?

Wizened baseball men look at each other and say, "You can never have too much pitching."

Everybody says that, wizened baseball men, idiots on sports talk shows, columnists who overvalue intangibles...

Or catching, they could just as easily add.

They could, but they would be wrong. You can only play one catcher a day. You need 5 pitchers to make up a rotation. I guess you could have two incredible catchers since they only play 120 or so games a year. But if you have 4 or 5 great catchers, you should probably be thinking of trading some of them.

Flash forward to yesterday afternoon at Bright (Green) House Field. Yankees rightfielder Randy Winn was on first base with two outs when catcher Francisco Cervelli doubled to center.
The relay throw from shortstop Jimmy Rollins came home just about the time Winn was bearing down on Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz. But the ball skipped high off the grass, losing some speed in the process, and Winn was able to slide to the outside part of the plate, avoiding contact. An imperceptible sigh of relief ran the length of the dugout.
Give up a run, save a catcher . . .
"I definitely don't want our catchers to get hurt, especially in spring training," manager Charlie Manuel said.

Two key words to that statement by Manuel. And just because his fellow players don't want to see him get hurt, doesn't mean he's irreplaceable.

Now, Ruiz isn't the best player in the Phillies' lineup. In fact, he's the only one of the regular eight who has never made an All-Star team.

I don't really care about how many all-star teams a player makes. Ruiz did have a 2.2 WAR last year which is middle of the pack for catchers with at least 300PA. (Link to his stats is up above)

He might just be the most important, though. That's partly because of the nature of his position. Catchers handle the pitching staff, a full-time job all by itself. They are involved in every defensive play.

Sports writers love to talk about all the little things catchers do on teams like handling the pitching staff and such. There's no way to measure it, but I'm sure it exists in some fashion. Though if it's the catcher's job to handle the pitching staff...why are there pitching coaches? Also, how are they involved in every defensive play? Are we including them as involved just because they hustle down to first to back up throws?

It's also partly because the Phillies have thinned their organizational catching depth in the last couple of years by trading prospects Lou Marson (in the Cliff Lee deal) and Travis D'Arnaud (in the Roy Halladay deal) and parting ways with veterans Chris Coste and Paul Bako.

I'm guessing the Phillies made those deals because you can never have too much pitching...as opposed to catching...

"We can't solve all the problems and can't put ourselves in a position to cover everything," Amaro pointed out. "It's always a concern when you have to move those types of players in what I guess you would call specialty positions. That's a concern."
The Phillies signed veteran Brian Schneider to be Ruiz' backup. Beyond that, the choices would include Paul Hoover, Dane Sardinha and Tuffy Gosewisch.

Tuffy is a sweet name for a catcher. Hagen failed his readers when he didn't point that out.

Ruiz is 31 now and is going into his fourth season as the Phillies' starter. And he's never seemed more comfortable in his role than he has this spring.

That's undoubtedly a result of maturity, the fact that he batted .341 in the postseason last year

Nice, but meaningless long term.

and the security that comes with the 3-year, $8.85 million contract extension he signed in the offseason.

I going to assume they signed him for more reasons than he got hot for a few games in October.

Even when Ruiz has been mired in deep slumps, Manuel has tended to stick with Ruiz because he likes the way he runs a game.

Also because their back ups ARE NOT AS GOOD!

At the same time, the expectation is that he will become a better hitter than his .246 career average.

Who's expectation is that? Ruiz is on the wrong side of 30 for you to expect him to get better all of a sudden.

A good catcher can be tough to replace.
Manuel said he thinks his team's catching situation is strong. At the moment, on paper, he's right. The Phillies have won the division 3 straight years with Ruiz behind the plate and gone to the World Series each of the last 2 years.
He figures to start about 120 games. Schneider is penciled in to handle the rest of the load. And if something were to happen to Ruiz, Schneider is a capable replacement. They'd have to find somebody to fill the backup role, however.

Sounds like they have the situation handled even if the 'irreplaceable' Ruiz goes down.

The Phillies know all about how quickly a solid catching situation can turn dicey. On May 2, 1970, they were playing the Giants in Candlestick Park. Willie Mays led off the bottom of the sixth and fouled a pitch off the right hand of catcher Tim McCarver, breaking it.
Irish Mike Ryan replaced McCarver.

Apparently Mike Ryan started playing ball back when having some strange, exotic ethnicity was enough to get you a nickname.

Incredibly, just two batters later, Ryan tagged Willie McCovey out at the plate . . . and broke his hand in the process when he was spiked by the runner.
Ryan finished the inning but Jim Hutto pinch-hit for him in the top of the seventh, meaning the Phillies used three catchers in just two innings.

Wanna take a bet on how many times that's happened? I guess it argues that Ruiz is irreplaceable because...if catchers keep getting hurt...then you...run out of them??? Kinda like any other position.

The Phillies don't have anybody to replace the home runs and RBI that Ryan Howard provides. No team does. Chase Utley is a perennial MVP candidate. Rollins ventured into shallow leftfield to make a backhand stop of a grounder by Marcus Thames yesterday and threw him out on a breathtaking play that not many shortstops will make. Shane Victorino's energy is an important part of the team's chemistry. Jayson Werth has blossomed into a superstar in front of our eyes. Losing any of the starters would be a drawback.

One of those statements is not like the other. Also I don't think Werth qualifies as a superstar in the way Howard and Jeter and A-rod are superstars. And losing Werth isn't a draw back because you think he's a superstar, it's because he hits the baseball very well.

Carlos Ruiz probably won't make the All-Star team this season, probably won't bat .300, probably won't hit 30 homers or drive in 100 runs.
And still might just be the most important player in the lineup.

That's a nice platitude, but it's false. I don't have to bother explaining why because you just did in the previous paragraph.

Case Closed!

#8 Seed Has Little Chance Against #1

It's a shocking development, I know. Truth be told, I usually don't start watching the NBA playoffs till round. But sports writers are finding reasons why the first round in the East will be a compelling watch. Ethan J. Skolnick, Israel Gutierrez both write articles about the same thing, and both list 4 or 5 reasons why the series will be exciting, excluding the inevitable conclusion of the Magic beating the Heat. So the columns are worth reading for the storylines behind the series, especially if you're like me and don't really pay attention to basketball until March.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Good Article VII

No bad columns to cover in the last couple days. I'm sure someone somewhere wrote a bad sports article, but I'm sadly limited to the English language newspapers. So I came across this from Jeff Sackman. I find it a great example of how statistics can be corrupted when the person reading them does not know how to put them into context. Enjoy.