Part 14...

...of my 50 part series on Damon. Michael Rosenburg of the Detroit Free Press brings us the following article:

Deal looks better with closer look at Johnny Damon

Johnny Damon lined into a double play in his first spring-training at-bat as a Tiger, but he isn’t worried about that. He stumbled twice on one run to first base, but he isn’t worried about that. Damon never seems worried about anything, actually. But if anything worries him, it’s the book.

I like that set up, kinda like a horror movie set up. I can just imagine James Earl Jones' voice-over for the trailer: "But if anything worries the man with nerves of steel...it's...THE BOOK."

There’s a book on me that’s been out for 16 years on how to pitch me, how to defend me,” Damon said.

I hope it's been updated since then.

I did not love the Tigers’ wooing of Damon, but I like it more now. First of all, they signed him for one year and $8 million, instead of the initial indications of two years and $14 million. That is a big difference to me, because if Damon is washed up, he can’t bog down the 2011 payroll.


That's a good point. But I don't think you needed a closer look at Damon to realize that.

Then there is something I hadn’t considered enough before the signing: the Damon domino effect.

Sweet, we have a new catchphrase for the summer. "The Damon Domino Effect." I'm guessing it has something to do with scoring hot women. Like if you and your good looking friend go out to a bar and he gets a group of girls to come over and talk to you two. That's "The Damon Domino Effect."

With Damon on board, the Tigers are free to try Ryan Rayburn at second base (if Scott Sizemore struggles) or third (if Brandon Inge has an injury setback, though Inge said he is ahead of schedule and could probably play right now if he was needed).


Checking here it looks like the Tigers already tried Ryan at every position except hot dog vendor. Granted we only have small sample sizes to look at, but as far as his major league career is concerned he has not fared too well in the infield.

Damon’s defense declined last year, and his power numbers were skewed by the new Yankee Stadium, a hitters’ ballpark.

I've documented this, but his defense has been declining gradually since '07 and he's arguably been bad since '03. There's a reason he didn't play in center at all last year. The reason was a
-36 UZR. And no, you can't blame Yankees Stadium for that kind ineptitude.

He is 36, and some of the best players in history were washed up at 36. So you never know when the end will come.

Great point~!

And yet … Some players are better from a distance than up close. They make spectacular plays, they put up good numbers, but when you don’t see them every day, you don’t realize how often they miss the cutoff man or foolishly try to take an extra base.

That's ACTUALLY a good point.

I think Damon is the opposite: the more you see him, the more you like him.
“I’m OK with that,” Damon said. “The easiest thing people can always do is talk negatively. Yeah, I don’t have a strong arm. But you don’t see any of those coaches in New York or Boston complaining about it, because I would get the ball in (quickly) so the guy couldn’t even think about taking the extra base. Or: ‘He doesn’t steal enough bases.’ I steal ’em when it counts. I’m not going to steal to pad my stats.”

I know he wasn't taking a direct shot at Rickey Henderson, but I'm going to pretend he was and laugh.

One of the biggest misconceptions about Damon is that he is a finesse player. It’s easy to understand why people might think that: his game is built on speed, his arm is weak, and even when he is in the batter’s box, you can tell he won’t hit a 500-foot home run.

That's the definition of a finesse player.

But Damon is tough. He has played at least 141 games for 14 straight years.

What does that have to do with being a finesse player? He shows up. So does Adam Dunn.

And he is mentally tough, too. When he is struggling, he resists the urge to over-think.

I'm pretty sure over-thinking has NEVER been considered Damon's problem.

He hits off a tee and just concentrates on making solid contact.

Terrific, he has the mental toughness of my 5-year-old niece, great point Rosenburg.

When Damon is thriving, he might take four or five swings in the batting cage and get out. That’s all he needs.

I'm not sure what that is supposed to point out other than he gets lackadaisical when he's on a hot streak.

One of these years, Damon won’t be able to fix his problems on the tee and won’t be able to make up for his weak arm with hustle and smarts.

According to his stats he's already unable to make up for his weak arm with hustle and smarts.

This could be that year. But if it’s not, Detroit will love its leftfielder.

Case Closed.

Writers Still Obsessed with Damon

Maybe it's his eyes. Anyway, this article about signing Damon comes from Detroit Rock City. Written by Lynn Henning, it's a great example of a writer who is going on information he remembers from two to three years ago about Damon. Take it away Lynn (me in regular type/Lynn in italics):

With shaky offense, Tigers will be challenged to finish .500

Alright, good start. A straight-forward theme.


A not-so-giddy thought for Tigers fans four days before spring training convenes has to do with the romancing of outfielder Johnny Damon.
What's troublesome for the Tigers is this: Even if they sign Damon, who would at least bring manager Jim Leyland a reliable leadoff bat, the Tigers will be lucky to finish .500 in 2010.

At no point does Lynn provide any statistical evidence as to why he came to this deduction. Just a bunch of guess as to what the players will do. Now I'm not saying he's wrong, just that I have no solid basis for his conclusion.

A reasonable view today, based on the way the current roster shakes out, is they might win 80 games, with 75 being more realistic.
Offense stands to be a king-size problem for the Tigers in 2010 and Damon will only make a potentially bad situation one important batter better.

Is there any reason the offense is a king-size problem? And I've already covered this before, but Damon is past his prime, an solid offensive player, but not someone that should take time away from a good prospect.

Damon, however, would be a big lift, all because he has dependable on-base percentage (.365 in 2009, .355 career), which is a vital number for a team so seemingly runs-challenged.

Why are they run-challenged?!?! I'll make the case for Lynn. Last year they averaged 4.6 r/g. That was good for 11th out of 14 teams. Team OPS+ of 93. It was that easy. I found it here.

That he has been shopped heavily by his agent, Scott Boras, is irrelevant.

Then why write it? Also, a terribly constructed sentence. "Scott Boras has shopped Damon around, but that is irrelevant." Better. Still shouldn't be in the article.

A sinking off-season market sodden with cash-strapped teams has at least created for the Tigers an opportunity.

Again Lynn, poor sentence construction. No commas? That's the fault of you and your editor. Let's see what we can do with this one. "A sinking off-season market sodden with cash-strapped teams has created an opportunity for the Tigers." There we go.

Mike Ilitch, the Tigers owner who wanted payrolls pared back, has clearly gotten nervous about his club's capabilities. Ilitch and the Tigers' front office are now considering hooking up with Damon and Boras...

I'm so tired of today's hook up culture. Owners and GM's just jumping in the sack with any agent that buys them an appletini at Spy Bar.

The shame of this somewhat revised thinking is that it prevented the Tigers from offering Placido Polanco arbitration in December. The payroll was then being pruned with such discipline that the Tigers couldn't afford being stuck with Polanco at $8 million or $9 million, even if they could have traded him by picking up a few million of his salary.

Polanco projects at a 3.3 WAR to Damon's 3.2. But the number's I've heard thrown around for Damon are in the $5 million range so maybe it was not a bad move. Like Lynn said earlier, the market is terrible this year for free agents.

Damon, Boras and the Tigers should still hook up.

I hope they use protection at least. Call back!

The Tigers can't assume that rookie Austin Jackson will be ready to play a full season in center or as their leadoff batter.

Again, I already covered this, but Damon is not a centerfielder anymore. Zero games as a centerfielder last year and terrible numbers in 2008.

The Tigers need Damon at the top spot. And then they must pray for surprises, all of them pleasant.

Why would they pray for unpleasant surprises?

Scott Sizemore must hit as Polanco's replacement at second base. He has the skills to hit for a nice average with some extra-base crunch.

OK, I just looked up his stats in Baseball Prospectus 2010 and they have the wrong player stats listed. Page 194 if you have one. Here are the real ones. Honestly, this is the first player I've looked up and his stats are wrong. I'm very disappointed Prospectus.

Seriously, Carlos Guillen must hit, and so must Magglio Ordonez.

Lynn is being totally serial. (South Park tag!) This sentence just doesn't say anything. You can make that statement for any team. For the Cubs to win Lee MUST HIT. For the Lakers to win Kobe MUST SCORE. (Third example should be a joke, cause that's the rules of comedic rhythm, but I got nothing.)

Brandon Inge must have a full season of offense on the scale of his 2009 first half. Gerald Laird needs to be the batter he often was before arriving in Detroit.

Yeah Lynn, we get it. It would help if the players played well. Great observation.

The biggest breakthrough must occur in center field, Curtis Granderson's old position. That's why Casper Wells remains perhaps the most pivotal player who arrives at Lakeland, Fla., this week. He could provide the punch necessary to minimize Granderson's departure for New York, at least until Jackson shows he belongs in the big leagues. Or, until Clete Thomas or Ryan Raburn can prove they're the answer.

If those are your choices for center I'd sign Damon right now. All of them project at a WARP under 1.4. Wells and Thomas are under .5. Again, Damon projects at a 3.2, for the sake of comparison. Though he is NOT a centerfielder.

That's an awful lot of issues in need of going the Tigers' way during the next six weeks. Otherwise, the Tigers must hope they have a surplus of pitching at the end of spring camp.

"Otherwise" is not the word you wanted there Lynn. I mean really they should hope for to have great pitching either way.

A pitching glut would allow for a trade, which could perk up an offense that right now is no match for the Minnesota Twins, who, incidentally, have quietly hit $100 million in payroll.

Holy crap is that true? Wow. Nice stat. I've confirmed it here.

But the above scenarios are also why you allow spring training to play out. Surprises emerge, some of them on the plus side. And the Tigers, these days, are really keen on pluses.

First of all, you can't stop spring training from playing out. Secondly, I'm going to rewrite that last sentence a few times with one change each time to prove a point:

And the Rockies, these days, are really keen on pluses.

And the Red Sox, these days, are really keen on pluses.

And Pauly Shore, these days, is really keen on pluses. (Third one!! I did it!!!)

Case Closed!

Phil 'er up

Take a look at this. Pitchers and catchers report in 4 days. 4 days until we get to see shots of Ron Baker playing long toss with Anibal Sanchez. It's a time of excitement for baseball fans all over the country. Unfortunately, thanks to the economy (or common sense in some cases) experienced/slightly used players are still looking for jobs. Phil Rogers has the story. Phil?
(His words in italics/mine in regular face type)

Potential difference-makers still on market

• Johnny Damon, who last was seen helping the Yankees win the World Series.

I already covered Damon on the blog but Phil demonstrates a lack of context here. I mean yeah, he 'helped', but A-rod helped a little bit more. Just because Damon happened to be one of a hundred players who went to the Yankees and grabbed a ring does not mean the Cubs should run out and sign him.

• Jermaine Dye, whose disappointing second half in 2009 has caused talent evaluators to act as if his rock-solid 2008 totals (.292-34-96) were put up in 1998.

I'm just going to link to this article here by Matt Carruth and leave it at that. Needless to say, Dye is not a good signing.

•Russell Branyan, who should have been more receptive to re-signing with the Mariners, whose general manager, Jack Zduriencik, gave him a chance to increase his at-bats.

Eh, lots of home runs with a low OBP. I am not enthused.
Annnnnd.....apparently that's it.

K so I'm going to help Phil out here and link to this page where you can view a list of the 52 other free agents and 'potential difference-makers' which is a term so generic you can apply it to Peter Gammons as a player.

A special article from a special man...

According to the Detroit Free Press website Jamie Samuelsen is a Free Press "Special Writer." I'm not sure what that means, but I'm guessing it has to do with providing him health insurance. Apparently it also means that his "opinions do not reflect those of the Detroit Free Press or it's writers." Well they do reflect those of Jamie, and that's who I'll be picking on today (Jamie in italics, me in regular type face).

At the right price, signing Damon would be good idea for Tigers

Astute observation. However I'm going to predict your article will spend most of it's time talking about how bad of an idea it is. Just to get this stuff out of the way the main projection systems (James; Chone; Marcel) have Damon at about a 3.2 WAR.

Everything about this story strikes me as reactive, not proactive.
Damon claims he wants to be a Tiger. While I’m sure that’s true, it’s only because he hasn’t been able to find another team or another salary that fits his desires. We all wanted to go to the prom in high school.

Well maybe not the Goth kids.

But once the most-popular and best-looking girls were going with the most-popular and best-looking guys, you had to move down the list.

I hope Jamie's prom date isn't reading this today cause that's just insulting. Also I'm sure some people go with their boy/girlfriends, not just whatever nerd they find hiding out in the computer lab blogging about sports columnists...oh wait...

This is Damon asking the nerdy-looking girl from chemistry class.

Samuelsen, haven't you seen any movies? When she takes her glasses off and lets her hair down she's going to look like Jamie Gertz. (Yeah! There's a reference that'll get the blogs hit total up)

The Tigers would be reacting as well. They’re like an eBay shopper who is just looking around the site. Do I need another outfielder? Not really, but hey, if one’s available at that price, I’d be a fool not to at least make a bid, right?

I actually like that metaphor. Sorry, my 7th grade teacher Sister Marie just slapped my knuckles with a ruler and reminded me that when you use "like" it's a simile.

I’ve bought a few things like that on eBay and I have to say that most of them are either in the trash, in a box in my basement, or right back on eBay. Which category Damon fell into would all depend on one thing – the price.

Wow. Well lets hope for Damon's sake he doesn't end up in a box in your basement.

I don’t care if it’s proactive or reactive or inactive, if the Tigers can bring Damon in for one year, on the cheap, then it’s a good move.

Ok. So despite you describing Damon as a 'last resort prom date who you found on Ebay and might end up buried in your basement' you still think he's a good idea? Jamie, going on your 'take whatever hooves into your field of vision' view on signing free agents and dating, I'm guessing your prom night was, shall we say, more than forgettable?

I’ve been critical of the Tigers for how they’ve handled the off-season. And plenty of you have been critical of me. I can’t talk out of both sides of my mouth. I can’t critique the team for going cheap, and then critique them for spending money.

And yet...

But there’s smart money and there’s dumb money. Smart money would be bringing Damon in for a year at less than $5 million.

I agree, that's a cheap amount to pay for 3.2 WAR. In fact its practically a steal.

The only problem is centerfield. Damon can’t play it anymore, especially at Comerica Park. So if Jackson does falter as a rookie, Damon certainly doesn’t solve that issue.

So now we're saying it's a bad idea? Well he's right, Damon has had a negative UZR the last 6 seasons. Of course he's no longer a CF, he played 132 games in left last year. The last time he played center was 2008 for 32 games where he posted a UZR of -36.1 which Bo Jackson and his plastic hip could probably still beat today. But my point is, you wouldn't argue signing Dye is a bad idea because he can't play CF.

I don’t know too many people who will pay to go to see Damon wearing a “D” on his cap.

That nerdy chick you asked to prom probably would.

I don’t think those players exist anymore.

I do. Kevin Costner introduced me to them when I stopped in a field in Ohio.

And maybe some of the ladies who love the look will but tickets(sic) out in leftfield. But overall, let’s just say that Damon won’t exactly have the Mark Fidrych effect on attendance.

Mark Fidrych is a reference to a player from the late 70's in Detroit. From Wikipedia: In his 18 appearances, attendance equaled almost half of the entire season's 81 home games.

Comparing a pitcher's drawing power to an everyday player is unfair since a pitcher only plays at home 15-18 times a year. So it's really easy to draw a direct correlation to attendance spikes and days he starts.

I bet there will be a lot of those blue T-shirts with Damon on the back, but I don’t know how many of those will be buying tickets.

Really? So people would be willing to spend $25 -$100 on Damon paraphernalia, but not $15-$30 on tickets to see him play? (In computer voice) Does not compute.

If I could design the perfect player for the Tigers to acquire, it would be another infielder with a bat.

If I could design the perfect player it would look like Jessica Alba and have Frank Thomas' hitting ability. But Jamie, your infielder with a bat for an arm also sounds intriguing.

But by waiting until February to start shopping and checking out the half-off rack for a bargain, you’re limited in what you can find.

And usually the only sizes left are small and XL.

Damon is not the ideal player.

Agreed.

But he is a good bat. The Tigers offense was bad last season and should be worse this year, based on the departures. Damon would stop that bleeding a little bit. And for the right price, how can that be a bad move?

Case Closed!