Sky's the limit

It's a bad time to be a fan of the Royals or Pirates. And it has been a bad time for over a decade. Even at my old age it's hard to remember when either of those teams were good. I vaguely remember someone named Bonds playing in Pitt. And I dunno, do the Royals still have Carlos Beltran? No? What about Mike Sweeney? Wow. Guess I should pay attention more. But hurray! I don't have to. Why? Because the unflappable Sky Andrecheck has paid attention, and has high hopes for the clubs. Take it away Andrecheck (his article in italics):


Even for Royals and Pirates, much can change in five years

Are you ready for the 2014 World Series between the Pirates and Royals? It could happen.

Yes, and a black man could become president, but I wouldn't bet on it. Oh...wait. But still that World Series match up is MUCH less likely.

I'll admit that it sounds insane.

Well more unlikely than insane, but continue:

Aren't the Pirates and Royals two small-market teams that just spent the last decade or two in the cellar? Can I really be talking about the same two inept franchises who don't spend much money and whose farm systems are just so-so? Aren't these two teams the same clubs that just lost 99 and 97 games respectively? Even the most optimistic fans in Pittsburgh or Kansas City might concede that there's little hope for contention any time soon. So why on earth would I be predicting a World Series involving these two clubs in just five short years?

How many rhetorical questions does it take to get to your word count mark? And five years is a long time in sports. A LOOOONG time.

First of all, let me say that I'm not predicting it.

Way to go out on a limb. So what is the point of the article then?

But I'm also saying that such a matchup is not out of the question.

Again, not exactly going out on a limb. Right now Sky sounds like a guy who just walked up to a girl in a bar, complimented her shoes or something lame like that, and is now just standing there awkwardly sipping his beer while she squirms in her seat hoping her friends get back with the next round.

Granted, there's not presently a lot to like about the those two teams, but as bad as their fans feel now, it's actually a good bet that a downtrodden club like the Royals or Pirates can turn it around within the just five years.

Alright Sky, now the girl is looking at a picture of Devo on the wall while you're trying to come up with something else to say. Tell her to have a good night, and go back to your stool. Remember, even though you feel embarrassed you have to stay for one more drink or you'll look sad and pathetic.

Flashback to 2004, when there were eight teams that seemed similarly comatose. Coming off several poor seasons in a row, they were reluctant to spend money, resided in small markets and had dwindling fan bases. Indeed, fans of the Expos, Reds, Rays, Tigers, Brewers, Rockies, Royals and Pirates had little hope of brighter days in the near future. What happened, though, was that four of these teams had remarkable success, turning their franchises around and making the playoffs within five years. What's more, three of the teams (Rays, Rockies and Tigers) went to the World Series in that time period.

Lets see, Reds, still can't make playoffs. Expos, no longer there, now the worst team in the league. Tigers, spent a lot of money getting better. Rays hit a prospect goldmine which is the route the Royals and Pirates should take. But again, in five years, any player that's good now, will be too expensive for the Pirates or Royals.

Oh no, Sky just spotted a tall brunette and he's going in:

While it's no guarantee, of course (the other four teams, including Pittsburgh and K.C., continued their ineptitude), previous history shows that it's possible for even the most despondent of clubs to claw back to not only respectability, but to greatness in a short period of time.

Way to show confidence there man. Nothing women or readers like more than a squirrelly guy with no convictions. That's fine though because Sky finally shows some testicular fortitude right here...sorta:

Building on some work I did over at Baseball Analysts, I developed a rough statistical model for predicting future team performance five years down the road. What's surprisingly unimportant is a team's history of winning or losing. In other words, no matter how good or bad your favorite team played last year or last decade, it won't have much of an effect on its performance five years later. This gives hope to every perennial loser, from Washington to Kansas City. Simply put, the fact that your team stinks, and has stunk throughout its recent history, becomes irrelevant in just five short years. While conventional wisdom might say that you can write off a team that has lost year after year, the data (as well as the Rays, Rockies and Tigers) show that, in fact, they've got a shot to be good just like everybody else.

I guess he's kind of taking a stand there, saying that every team has a shot on opening day. That's a sort of stand I suppose. Assuming a conventional platitude is a stand.

Looking at Baseball America's rankings from 1984 through 2009 shows a strong correlation between a team's farm system today and its performance five years from now.

That's probably because 5 years is a long time in sports.

A good farm system can also boost a team's future prospects by another three to five wins. The third important factor, though not as important as the other two, is a team's recent spending history. Not surprisingly, teams which tend to throw money around are expected to do a couple of games better in the future. Their willingness to sign free agents and break the bank to sign a winner bodes well for a team's chances in the future. The other finding, is that, not surprisingly, baseball is unpredictable. Even teams which seem to be sitting pretty now could fall apart in just five years. In statistical terms, the standard errors of any five-year predictions tend to be quite high, meaning that anything can happen.

That's probably because five years is a long time in sports. Sky, did you not read me write this earlier?

The good news, for teams such as the Pirates and Royals, is that their putrid recent history will be irrelevant five years from now. The bad news is that money and market size matter, neither of which are their strong suits. However, earlier this year John Manuel of Baseball America put both the Pirates and Royals in the top half of all farm systems. Considering that farm system talent is a strong indicator of future performance, that's good news.

This part reminds me of that Simpson's Horror episode where Homer buys the Doll for Bart's B-day. The dolls is cursed. That's bad. But it comes with a free 'Frogurt'. That's good!

Factoring in everything, the statistical model predicts that the Royals and Pirates will win just three fewer games than the average team in 2014. This means that even considering all that has gone wrong for these clubs over the past two decades, their chances to contend in 2014 are pretty similar to every other team. In other words, they've got a chance. Given the high degree of variability in these predictions, it's not at all out of the question to predict that one of these clubs will be a contender or even go to the World Series within the next five years.

That whole paragraph means NOTHING. Absolutely NOTHING. Why are you still writing if you have nothing else to say? Also you just spent the paragraph before that explaining how it was almost impossible to predict what will happen in 5-years. Remember?

While it's hard to fathom that a team as woeful as Pittsburgh could actually overtake a powerhouse like Los Angeles in five years' time, history shows that it can easily happen.

Read that again. Sky really wrote that. He actually contradicted himself in the SAME SENTENCE. At least earlier in the article he'd wait a paragraph or two. Sky...it's either hard to fathom or not. Don't ask the girl if she wants to see a movie this weekend. Pick a day, Saturday or Friday.

This article goes on for another couple hundred words of him rambling the same point over and over, that the teams have a chance, but he isn't predicting they will, but they could if they do things right, but you need luck, so he predicts they might, but you can't predict the future with certainty, but....

Yeah so Sky I know you got the girl's number, but that's just because she wanted you to go away.

Case Closed.

The One Where Brock Comes Back

So as reported by ESPN and CNN and Wrestling Observer, Brock Lesnar has "miraculously" recovered from diverticulitis. Great news for him and UFC. Lesnar has shown himself to be one of the biggest draws the sport has seen and his absence not only affected PPV buys but also the title picture. As Carwin and Mir head into a match to determine the interim champion, I'm sure it will be in the back of everybody's head that the real champion is sitting on the sideline. The goal is to have Lesnar back at the UFC 14 show.

TNA apparently lectured fans on how to behave at their shows. According to Dave Meltzer, Steve Small, Director Of Production, came out before the taping and talked to the fans. "It was surreal...He tried to explain that they are not fans, but as far as the television production, they are cast members." The gist of it was they don't want fans swearing on camera or giving the finger, which yeah, that makes sense. It won't happen, but it makes sense.

"They never said they would kick people out for booing babyfaces, but it was said that they have a message and stories to get across to the nearly two million viewers and told the crowd it was their job to go along with the stories and not to do things that will throw off the wrestlers."

Calling going along with the story lines the fans "job" seems pretty unbelievable in an industry where the promoters constantly cheat fans out of promised main events. Even a company like ROH that is carried by the hardcore fan has pulled the wool over fans eyes. I can remember paying to see Samoa Joe and Danielson in what was supposed to be a street fight for the title, only to have it changed to a non-title match right beforehand. Does TNA expect fans to just "go along" with that? I do get that fans in the arena do not pay to see the shows. It's debatable whether that makes a difference though. People have expectations of how they can behave at sporting events. If you're going to argue wrestling is more of a play, then I can see why fans would be expected to comport themselves a certain way. However, that does fly in face of years of tradition.

The idea is there's a middle ground of being a part of the show, without ruining it. One of the things that makes TNA unique from the WWE is the fact that audience is such a part of the show. If they start to try and dictate how fans react, they run the risk of killing that aspect of their program. Seems like a big risk just to make sure people go along with story lines that have a habit of being...confusing at best.
Case Closed!

Good Article Part III

Here is a link to a good article by Glenn Dickey analyzing the Huff signing. Unfortunately his conclusion is a bit off. The idea that the signing is 'out of touch with reality' is dramatic at best. His salary is at 3 million. and CHONE projects Huff to be worth 2.7 million. It is not the kind of signing that is going to change the your expectation of the offense. But of course the signing did not happen in a bubble.
Huff will take the place of last years starter Travis Ishikawa (presuming Huff plays most of his time at 1st; also his name makes me thing about Jimmy Wang Chang). Travis was a stud at defense last year according to UZR. And even though he isn't as good on offense, Travis' defense alone puts him over the top of Huff as far as WAR and value. Add in that Travis is 26 and Huff is 32, it would seem taking at-bats away from a player entering his prime, and giving them to a player leaving his, is not a step in the right direction.
Case Closed!!!

P.S. Here is a much better article by Evan Brunell of the Hardball Times. He completely shames me with his analysis, but we both came to the same conclusion that Travis is the better long term choice.

I remember when young Randall got married...

And everyone said that it was going to settle Orton down and mature him. Well it lasted for a while at least.

Same Old Mike? Way!

Mike Vaccaro is a columnist for the interminable (that's a word right?) NY Post. According to his bio he has delighted (my word, not his) Post readers since 2002. I mean, with a blog named "Vac's Wacks" how can he not right? So he writes this article after a thrilling Jets-Chargers game yesterday. If it was just a blog post, maybe I would let it go, but this is his actual column for the Post and well, I'm going to have to collapse its nut graph (journalism humor!!!; you'll get that reference when you read his article).

Same old Jets? No way!
SAN DIEGO -- Rex Ryan was fresh off the win of his life, fresh off the call of his life, fresh off giving the kind of postgame (sp.) victory speech a lot of coaches go their whole lives practicing for and never get to deliver.
The Jets coach had nearly collapsed both of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's lungs with a victory hug. Ryan had led what Calvin Pace would call "the loudest singing of the Lord's Prayer that I've ever heard." He had taken a blowtorch to 41 years of frustration and futility and failure, nudged the Jets to within a game of the Super Bowl, kept alive his famous itinerary.

Mike, when you say "he had taken a blowtorch...." do you mean Ryan, or the Lord? I hope you mean the Lord cause the idea of him working on his trans-am with a blowtorch, a cigarette and wearing a dego 't' is totally working for me. And in case you're wondering Rex's "famous itinerary" is this per USA Today: Jets coach Rex Ryan confirmed on Sunday that he gave his team a playoff itinerary that included a Super Bowl parade in New York on Feb. 9.

They are tough sons of guns, and unshakeable (sp), and playing as well as anybody still alive in these playoffs. Three other teams came into the weekend the same as the Jets had, first-round winners carrying momentum into their divisional games. Two of the three were smaller underdogs than the Jets. All three got flattened.

Alright Mike, hold on. "Tough sons of guns"? As opposed to the Chargers, who should have been playing in ball gowns (pictured, L.T.'s quinceañera gown)and white silk gloves. "Playing as well as anybody still alive..."? Uh...yes, they are playing as well as the other teams that won I suppose. Certainly better than the teams that lost. And how many first round winners don't have momentum going into the next playoff game? It's just so obvious to state.

"See, I think everyone just believes we're a team that acts like we're confident," tight end Dustin Keller, emerging as a significant January hero, said when this 17-14 victory over the Chargers was complete. "But here's the thing: We really believe it. We really believe we belong."

I don't like picking on statements by players, especially right after an emotional playoff game, but insisting that "you believe you belong" comes off as a bit insecure. I'm just saying, the Colts don't tell the media over and over how they believe in themselves as a good team. Alright, back to picking on Mike:

They got after a quarterback most thought they never would touch; they rattled Phillip Rivers -- thought to be un-rattle-able -- and they made every big play available to them.

I'm sorry, I missed the email where Phillip Rivers was declared, "un-rattle-able" by knowledgeable football analysts. Maybe he was and I seriously just missed it. If so, my email is listed in my personal info on the blog guys, please include me from now on. Maybe it's one of those pro-wrestling things where you build up the guy you just beat to make yourself look stronger.

They trailed 7-0 after a half and 7-3 after three quarters but then, on the third play of the fourth quarter, Mark Sanchez scampered out of the pocket, looking, searching, an army of Jets fans praying he wasn't about to go all Richard Todd on them.

Oooooo... Take that Richard Todd. You just got got "Wack Vacced" or "Mack Sacked" or "Crack Backed" or something along those lines. K so I don't really get the Richard Todd reference. Um...First choice is this guy. An actor and war hero. He died of cancer, maybe they were praying Sanchez wouldn't die of cancer during his scramble, a fair...concern...I guess.
There's this guy. A horn player who was on the Jurassic Park sound track. Maybe they were praying he wouldn't start doing a jazz hands dance during the play. Though that seems more like a Robin Williams thing.
Alright fine...he meant this guy. But I wanted to have some fun first.

Damien Woody brought his two Super Bowl rings to work with him yesterday, wearing one on either hand. Alan Faneca has one. That made the trip, too. They didn't say a word. They didn't flash them.
"Just a message," Woody said, smiling.

Sounds like a dick move to me, I dunno. If a friend couldn't conceive a child you wouldn't show up with the pacifier your baby uses hanging around your neck.

The Jets are 60 minutes from the Super Bowl. Sixty minutes from a Possible Dream. Sixty minutes from playing a Super Bowl in Miami.

I have no witty comment about that paragraph. Maybe a Mike Wallace reference. Something like that. It just seems poorly written to me, that's all.
Case Closed!!!