Monday, June 28, 2010

That's a Strong Looking Philly You Got There...

My dear old friend Phil Rogers decided to write about the hottest team in baseball. You know, the one that lost to the Cubs who are 9 games under .500. Just one game though right? Of course. Sadly, Phil chooses to list the 10 reasons the White Sox have turned it around, and none of them consist of Buttafuoco:

1. Pitching: Nothing does more to keep you in a playoff chase than starting pitching. The Sox's rotation has done an about-face since June 8, when it had a 5.22 earned-run average. Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle & Co. have hung up a 2.33 mark in the last 17 games. That's not going to continue forever, but split the difference between the good number and the bad number and you've got a 3.78 ERA. Only five teams are getting better work from their starters, with the Rays the only one in the AL.

That is NOT how statistics work. You choose two stretches of games then average out the averages to see how well a team's pitching will perform, that's completely ludicrous. The Sox have a team era over this year of 4.26 putting them in 8th place in the AL. Not great. But what's this? The White Sox LEAD the league in FIP and xFIP. Also they lead the league in K/9. 4th in BB/9. 3rd in HR/9. So that whole team ERA thing is a bit misleading and shows that while they probably over-peformed the last couple weeks, Phil is right that they are a better pitching team then they've shown.
As for the last sentence, where he pulls that conclusion from I have no idea. The White Sox starters are again, end of the pack in ERA. But if Phil is just going on the last couple weeks they're the best by far. Where the Rays come in I have no idea, unless he's just going on a random guess of potential. The Rays don't lead the league in any category that's of any significance. The Mariners however...

2. Rios: Thank you, Blue Jays. Ken Williams took a huge risk by claiming Rios on waivers last summer, when the $62 million left on his deal represented the biggest financial commitment in franchise history. He's a two-way stud, positioned for a 30/50 season while playing a great center field.

Rios has been playing very well for the White Sox. But nowhere does he project to go 30/50. Zips U(pdated) has him going 24/36. He is playing a good center field, which he has done consistently.

3. Alexei Ramirez: The third-year big-leaguer has quietly developed into one of the best shortstops in the AL, rewarding Guillen's confidence in him. The Sox have allowed 15 unearned runs, the seventh-lowest figure in the majors.

Alexei has played great defense and continues to develop year after year. However he is not the sole reason the Sox have only allowed 15 unearned runs. And really, being 7th in the Majors is fine, it's really not a reason to throw out there for a team's success.

There's nothing else particularly egregious about this article, but some of the poor choices for stats Phil used deserved to be called out.

Case Closed.

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