Taking a stab at 2010 season picks
I guess that's appropriate phrasing for picking a team on the South Side of Chicago.
Here is my vision for the end of the 2010 season: White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen and general manager Ken Williams knocking FOX’s Chris Rose to the ground while wrestling for the World Series trophy.
That is actually the most realistic prediction in this article. Assuming they both crash some other teams World Series Trophy presentation. Which would be so great I can barely stand the idea.
Ozzie’s youngest son, Oney, ripping Williams in a tweet delivered straight from the victory podium.
Not as funny.
Ozzie’s oldest son, Ozzie Jr., pouring champagne on his girlfriend and fellow reality TV star, Kim Kardashian.
That's gonna happen anyway.
That’s right, I’m picking Team Wacko to win the World Series.
Ridiculous? Perhaps. But so is the notion of trying to predict the actual Series champ seven months in advance.
I don't know if it's ridiculous. The playoffs throw a wrench in the whole thing since they're such a crapshoot, but it doesn't mean you're going to run out and pick the Royals to win it all. You can use statistical analysis and complicated calculations to come to a pretty decent guess.
Spare me those computer simulations with their “deadly accurate” forecasts of exactly how many games each team will win.
Oh, I guess you can't.
Tell me which players will get hurt.
They have stats for that, it's called PAP for pitchers. Most, if not all projection systems take into account how many games a player will play based on his age and injury history.
Tell me which teams will provide the best replacements.
Projection systems do that also. Have you never heard of Baseball Prospectus?
Tell me which moves will be made in the July and August trading periods.
Call Peter Gammons, I'm sure he knows.
Tell me all that, and I will tell you which team will win the 2010 Series — or, at least, give you a reasonably good guess.
Well Mike, you are expected to look some things up. I'm sure SI has interns that can do that for you and compile the information in a readable way. I'm also starting to see how you picked the White Sox, you did no research and picked the team you could make the most jokes about.
Allow me to share my philosophy for this column, which my ruthless, unrelenting bosses demand, without fail, on the eve of every season:
I'm guessing it involves chicken bones and the blood of a virgin.
Never pick the Yankees.
Great, you've been wrong 27 times then. (yes I know he didn't do prediction for SI back in the 20's). The 90's must have been a tough time for you at the sports book Mike.
Almost never pick the Red Sox.
Last decade must have been a tough time for you at the sports book Mike.
Try to approach the column seriously, assessing each team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Hey, a logical step, way to go.
But then, at the precise moment my head is about to explode, go off the board. Hence, the White Sox.
I'm going to point out that I get what he's trying to do here, saying that predictions are nothing more than guesses so why not just have fun with them. But this is kinda his job, and he's blatantly admitting he put almost no time or effort into this column.
This season, the Yankees and Phillies look like the two best teams on paper. I can easily foresee a World Series rematch if the Series started, like, tomorrow. But a 162-game regular season and two playoff rounds will come first. The trick to identifying a potential champion is not simply picking the most talented outfit. The winner will need financial flexibility to add payroll, a strong farm system to deliver both quality depth and trade fodder and, last but not least, luck.
OK. All those things might help, but I would strongly recommend picking the most talented outfit. And not just the team with the strongest farm system. And to be honest, luck evens out over the course of a season. The Yankees weren't just lucky last year. The Phillies weren't just lucky. There were the most talented teams in their respective leagues.
The White Sox, at the very least, will be a better team than most people think.
Wow, Phil sounds really confident about that, I wonder why...
Their pitching, starting and relief, could be astonishingly good.
Alllllllright...it could also be astonishingly bad. Phil didn't give us any reason to believe him there.
They will score enough runs only if center fielder Alex Rios and right fielder Carlos Quentin produce monster seasons, and that’s a lot to ask.
So why would you pick them if you think their offense can't produce?
But the Twins’ loss of closer Joe Nathan created an opening, and if the Sox reach the postseason, a rotation of Peavy, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd and John Danks could evoke memories of their title run in ’05.
There we go, a reasonable scenario where the White Sox could win it all. Though that offense still looks poor.
The White Sox probably are not as flush with cash as they were last season,
"Probably"? God knows you couldn't use any resource at SI to find that out.
when they obtained two pricey players, right-hander Jake Peavy and center fielder Alex Rios, within a two-week period. Their farm system, too, is not as deep as those of some other clubs,
Yeah, as reported by SI they ranked 25th. Not good.
but when Williams needs a piece, he usually gets it. Of course, Team Wacko annually leads the league in volatility, and the potential for controversy is even greater this season. Guillen, Williams and owner Jerry Reinsdorf will be the stars of a reality show on the MLB Network. Little good can come of such an endeavor, at least from a baseball perspective.
By the time that airs (mid-season) the press will have a whole litany of quotes to work with from Guillen already. Some racist, some sexist, some homophobic, but all offensive.
The beauty of the game is that virtually every contender can be viewed through the same cynical prism.Really? That's the beauty of the game? Cynicism?
Bear with me now
Da Bears!!
as I harp on the weaknesses of every club that dares threatens my anointed champions. The Yankees largely avoided injuries with an older roster last season, and I’m not sure they can do it again.
Good point.
The Red Sox will excel at run prevention and reinforce their offense if necessary. But let’s see right-handers John Lackey and Josh Beckett both produce 30-plus starts.
So we're going with the injury thing again...alright.
The Rays’ starting pitching is not at the level of the two AL East super-powers, their bullpen will miss setup left-hander J.P. Howell early and their budget already is shot — not good.
Last year the Ray's were 7th in the league in ERA. 0.01 behind the super-powered Red Sox. And you just talked about how the starters for the Red Sox won't stay healthy. While you're at it, you could have pointed out that last year the White Sox had better pitching than the Yankees, and that was without Jake Peavy for most of the year.
So then Phil goes over a few other teams, nothing of note there.
Now to the inferior league
The Phillies already are worried about their pitching depth, though my guess is they will re-sign Pedro Martinez, who unfortunately cannot both start and relieve.
K, pitching depth, got it.
I love the Braves, but worry about the age/injury factor with closer Billy Wagner, setup man Takashi Saito and third baseman Chipper Jones.
K, pitching depth again.
The Marlins will hit, but their rotation beyond Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco is a crapshoot. The Brewers are similar, though their pitching is stronger overall.
Alright, chalk up two more for pitching depth.
Talk to me about the Cardinals, and I’ll bet you that at least one of their core players — most likely right-hander Chris Carpenter, maybe first baseman Albert Pujols — will miss significant time.
Injuries, a change of pace, thank god. Though he does point out Carpenter as a candidate for injury which implies (dun dun dunnnn) pitching depth.
The Cubs? Good luck to Lou managing that bullpen.
Arrr...Another for ye depths of pitchin'. Are we seeing a trend yet?
In the N.L. West, the suddenly trendy Rockies possess enough young talent to patch any weakness. My only question is...
Let me guess...
whether they can handle expectations, something they did not do well in ’08 coming off their only World Series appearance.
Ha, that's their biggest problem? Handling expectations? Bet the White Sox wish they had that as their only conundrum.
As for the Divorce Court Dodgers, manager Joe Torre has spoken openly about the team’ lack of a No. 1 starter, and owner Frank McCourt refused to add payroll in midseason even when he was, ahem, happily married.
This is just laughable now. Though in a way, lack of a number one starter isn't exactly pitching depth right? I mean kinda, but I want to give Phil one here.
The Giants’ pitching is terrific,
YES!!! Finally.
but I’m sorry, first baseman Aubrey Huff and super-utility man Mark DeRosa will not make enough of a difference offensively.
Damn, the one team in the league that can pitch, what a shame.
OK, that about does it. The White Sox are my only team left standing, though it’s always possible that Ozzie and Kenny will end up rolling in the mud.
Sounds like a main event for lockdown. Someone tell Hogan.
Hold off on your Internet snark, your vicious blogs and those ever-cheerful comments that appear at the bottom of my columns.
Dude, don't tell me how to run my blog.
The best part is, you can play the exact same process-of-elimination game that I just did, substituting your favorite team as champion. It’s baseball. It’s unpredictable.
I defy any Pirates fan to do this.
And it will consume us all for the next seven months. Enjoy the season, everyone.
Well that was a pleasant ending at least.
Case Closed!
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